The resilient residential Seattle-Bellevue real estate market endured another economic record-breaking month that included the 10-year treasury note yield briefly pushing above 5% for the first time in 16 years while the 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate rose to over 8% for the first time in 23 years.  Nationally, mortgage demand fell to its lowest level since 1995.

The 2023 residential Seattle-Bellevue real estate market continues adjusting to increasing mortgage interest rates together with a declining inventory of re-sale homes, now at historic lows.

According to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, the median sold price for single-family homes in King County as of January 2023 was $799,950 (after the 20% price correction in 2022 due to higher interest rates) and peaked in June at $940,000 then decreased to approximately $910,000 in August 2023. Therefore, home prices have appreciated over 13% in 2023 to date and I expect the year will end with approximately 10% to 12% of annual home value appreciation. Home values and demand in 2023 appears to be adjusting to increasing mortgage interest rates.

Home purchase and sales activity for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area is generally following seasonal market trends in August despite the 30-year mortgage rate surging to its highest level in 22 years to about 7.5%. The quantity of Sold properties (demand) increased almost 5% from July to August after the slowdown from June to July, forecasted last month. However, increasing interest rates and general market uncertainty has dampened the increase in properties going under contract to only about 1% this month. There is a lot of uncertainty in the local and global markets in the near term. However, it’s with certainty that I believe the long-term outlook for real estate values in the Puget Sound region will follow an upwards trendline.

Home purchase and sales activity for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area is following typical seasonal market trends. Home sales activity peaked in mid-June and currently the quantity of Sold properties (demand) decreased approximately 6% from June to July while homes for sale (supply/inventory) increased over 1% during this period. Expected seasonality indicates the quantity of properties going under contract (Pending) may continue to gradually decrease until there’s a spike in activity from mid-August into September.

Seasonal trends indicate the peak selling season for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area concludes in mid-June. However, current historic low inventory and a larger buyer pool may support home price values into September, assuming mortgage interest rates remain at about 7% for 30-year conventional financing.  Thereafter,  activity and values typically decline during the holidays.

Currently, the greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is approaching the end of the peak selling season in early June. Thereafter, based on historical, seasonality; the number of properties under contract tends to decrease or stabilize until increasing again in late August through September, and decreasing during the holiday season from October to mid-January.

It’s interesting to note that whoever you speak with in the residential real estate industry with 10 to 20 or more years of experience, whether it’s brokerage, mortgage financing, home inspections or leasing, they’ll probably tell you the lowest activity they’ve experienced in their career was from September 2022 until February 2023. 

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is following the seasonal trend in 2023 and I anticipate increasingly stronger Buyer activity in April as mortgage interest rates have dipped below 6% towards the end of March.

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market of 2023 began with strong Buyer activity in January. The quantity of single-family properties in King County going under contract (demand) in January 2022 (1,282) increased 2% in January 2023 (1,308).