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The volume of residential real estate sales in the greater Seattle-Bellevue area for 2024 to date appears to exceed 2023, which indicates an improving market stimulated by declining interest rates, as Q3 ends and Q4 begins.

The summer sales season began in June with the typical seasonality driven slowdown indicated by increasing inventory/supply with decreasing sales/demand for the greater Seattle-Bellevue metro area through most of July. However, the rapid decrease in the 10-year treasury yield and related decline in mortgage interest rates in late July through early August appear to have facilitated an increase in sales activity this month.

We entered the seasonal summer slowdown (slump) indicated by reduced buyer activity beginning in June for the greater Seattle-Bellevue metro area. The peak of the 2024 selling season was in May, as reported and forecasted last month. Thereafter, the quantity of single-family homes For Sale (supply) has continued increasing while the quantity of homes sold (demand) has decreased month over month.

It appears the peak of the selling season for the Seattle-Bellevue real estate market was in May 2024 based on current available data, which follows seasonal trends. Looking ahead, the supply of single-family homes on the market (For Sales) should continue increasing more than the quantity of properties going under contract (Pended) and Sold until about September when they begin to decrease until January.

The Seattle-Bellevue real estate market continues to follow seasonal trends into May, which is generally the peak of the selling season. The supply of single-family homes on the market (For Sales) month over month is increasing as is the quantity of properties going under contract (Pended) and Sold.

The Seattle-Bellevue real estate market entered April, Q2-2024, following seasonal trends with an increasing supply of single-family homes on the market (For Sales) month over month while the quantity of properties going under contract (Pended) and Sold also increased.

The Seattle-Bellevue residential real estate market continues to be a strong sellers’ market in Q1-2024 while overall market activity remains at historic +10 year lows as it did in 2023. This trend also coincides with historically high mortgage interest rates that have reverted closer to the long-term 30-year fixed mortgage rate average of 7.74% for over 50 years.

Many economists and market analysts had been forecasting the Federal Reserve would make 3 to 7 federal funds rate cuts in 2024 to respond to declining inflation and consumer demand together with a rise in unemployment and a slowing economy.  However, recent data released during the past two weeks, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), indicates unexpected economic growth, persistent inflation and labor market strength. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve is now expected to delay fed funds rate cuts until there is more data supporting economic slowing.

The 2023 residential real estate market in the United States, including Seattle, experienced the lowest sales activity in well over a decade. However, 2024 is appearing to be a year of recovery as interest rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages decreased from the historic high of 8.6% in October 2023 to about 6.6% as of today. Despite low demand from Buyers, the lower supply of homes for sale in the Puget Sound area supported 6.25% home price appreciation in King County for single-family homes in 2023.

The birth of our daughter was "scheduled" for December 26th, but she decided to arrive on November 28th, which made things a bit hectic around here. Poppy was born healthy at 6 lbs. 4 oz. and my wife is also doing well, as she continues to recover. Our son, Otto, is getting used to not being the only child and is helping out, as best he can. We feel very blessed and grateful. We just had a happy Hannukah and are now looking forward to a Merry Christmas. We wish you the happiest of holidays and a healthy new year!

The Seattle-Bellevue residential real estate market activity has continued to slow according to trend as we approach the holiday season. As forecasted in September, I believe King County single-family median price appreciation for 2023 will be approximately 10%. Inventory continues to be at +10 year record lows while the pool of ready, willing and able Buyers is slightly increased.

The resilient residential Seattle-Bellevue real estate market endured another economic record-breaking month that included the 10-year treasury note yield briefly pushing above 5% for the first time in 16 years while the 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate rose to over 8% for the first time in 23 years.  Nationally, mortgage demand fell to its lowest level since 1995.

The 2023 residential Seattle-Bellevue real estate market continues adjusting to increasing mortgage interest rates together with a declining inventory of re-sale homes, now at historic lows.

According to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, the median sold price for single-family homes in King County as of January 2023 was $799,950 (after the 20% price correction in 2022 due to higher interest rates) and peaked in June at $940,000 then decreased to approximately $910,000 in August 2023. Therefore, home prices have appreciated over 13% in 2023 to date and I expect the year will end with approximately 10% to 12% of annual home value appreciation. Home values and demand in 2023 appears to be adjusting to increasing mortgage interest rates.

Home purchase and sales activity for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area is generally following seasonal market trends in August despite the 30-year mortgage rate surging to its highest level in 22 years to about 7.5%. The quantity of Sold properties (demand) increased almost 5% from July to August after the slowdown from June to July, forecasted last month. However, increasing interest rates and general market uncertainty has dampened the increase in properties going under contract to only about 1% this month. There is a lot of uncertainty in the local and global markets in the near term. However, it’s with certainty that I believe the long-term outlook for real estate values in the Puget Sound region will follow an upwards trendline.

Home purchase and sales activity for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area is following typical seasonal market trends. Home sales activity peaked in mid-June and currently the quantity of Sold properties (demand) decreased approximately 6% from June to July while homes for sale (supply/inventory) increased over 1% during this period. Expected seasonality indicates the quantity of properties going under contract (Pending) may continue to gradually decrease until there’s a spike in activity from mid-August into September.

Seasonal trends indicate the peak selling season for the greater Seattle-Bellevue area concludes in mid-June. However, current historic low inventory and a larger buyer pool may support home price values into September, assuming mortgage interest rates remain at about 7% for 30-year conventional financing.  Thereafter,  activity and values typically decline during the holidays.

Currently, the greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is approaching the end of the peak selling season in early June. Thereafter, based on historical, seasonality; the number of properties under contract tends to decrease or stabilize until increasing again in late August through September, and decreasing during the holiday season from October to mid-January.

It’s interesting to note that whoever you speak with in the residential real estate industry with 10 to 20 or more years of experience, whether it’s brokerage, mortgage financing, home inspections or leasing, they’ll probably tell you the lowest activity they’ve experienced in their career was from September 2022 until February 2023. 

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is following the seasonal trend in 2023 and I anticipate increasingly stronger Buyer activity in April as mortgage interest rates have dipped below 6% towards the end of March.

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market of 2023 began with strong Buyer activity in January. The quantity of single-family properties in King County going under contract (demand) in January 2022 (1,282) increased 2% in January 2023 (1,308).

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market was an absolute roller coaster in 2022 but appears to be on track as Buyer activity began to increase in January 2023 following the typical seasonal trend from January to June. The quantity of homes going under contract in King County during the first half of January 2023 was 23% more than the first half of January 2022.

The greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market dramatically cooled after June 2022 due to the typical downward seasonal trend combined with exponentially higher mortgage interest rates that peaked in October and November at 7.85%--from rates as low as 2.625% in late 2021 to 3.85% in March 2022.  Now, interest rates are at a two-month low and qualified borrowers are seeing rates below 6%, again.  I believe mortgage interest rates will range between +/-5% and +/-6% in 2023.  I do not believe we’ll see rates below 4% in 2023 or 2024.

Home values typically decrease from October to December based on seasonal data in the Seattle-Bellevue metropolitan area. However, the exogenous events indicated in my September 2019 forecast that could maintain or stimulate an increase in home values before 2020 may be aligning in November 2019. Regardless of the timing of these events, now is a good time to Buy while interest rates are lower (e.g. below 4%) and before home values appreciate in 2020.

Amidst regulation updates in California that could hurt their businesses, popular ridesharing apps Uber and Lyft are now feeling the pressure from Seattle, as Mayor Jenny Durkan announced that the city plans to implement minimum wage requirements and impose new taxes on the apps.

Two former Amazon employees, Shariq Siddiqui and Umer Sadiq, recently teamed up with former Google computer vision scientist Faisal Shifayat to introduce Veeve, a new tech-driven grocery cart technology system that could change the face of brick-and-mortar grocery stores. As GeekWire outlines, the entrepreneurs saw the power of the technology Amazon implemented in its “Go” stores and wanted to find a way to implement the technology in larger format stores.

The fate of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USCMA) could now lie in the hands of U.S. Labor Parties, as the Wall Street Journal reports that Democrats are unlikely to support the measure without labor backing. As Steny Hoyer, House Majority Leader, said in a statement, “it would probably be doubtful that we will be able to get there if we don’t come to an agreement with the workers of America who feel that they have been badly hurt by NAFTA.”

Last month, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan drafted a proposal known as the ‘Mercer Mega Block’. The plan presents a breakdown on how funds will be allocated from the sale of nearly three acres in South Lake Union. Alexandria Real Estate won the bid for the location, paying $143.5 million. A portion of those funds will be designated to address the homeless problem in Seattle, as well as affordable housing.

The residential real estate market for the greater Seattle-Bellevue metro area has been relatively healthy and steady in 2019 after the May 2018 price correction.  The sale prices of condominiums and single family homes increased 11.9% from January 2019 to May 2019.  Currently, I estimate home values will decrease approximately 6% from June through December to approximately 350-355 $/sqft until January when values likely increase again, which is a net annual value increase of 5.9%. 

It was announced last week that Redmond’s Overlake East Center sold for $41 million to a San Francisco-based investment firm. Spread out over 90,235 square feet, the complex is located only a mile from Microsoft headquarters and in close proximity of the proposed Overlake Village light-rail station.

Over the past few years, Bellevue has emerged in the tech spotlight, with long-time giants such as Microsoft and the recent announcement by Amazon of a relocation to the Eastside. A new effort to build the Performing Arts Center Eastside (PACE) could add to the innovation with an immersive, cutting-edge approach to the concept of the performing arts center. The project has been in planning for decades but new CEO Ray Cullom is breathing new life into it - they have now raised $123 million of the estimated $200 million it will take to fund the project.